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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.